Can't touch this: Playoffs' nastiest pitches

When it comes to fooling hitters, Phillies, Rays have a decided advantage

OPINION

By Brett Ballantini (Twitter: @CSNChi_Beatnik)

CSNChicago.com White Sox Insider

NBCSports.com contributor

updated 7:54 p.m. ET Sept. 29, 2011

Earlier this month I sat down with amenable young White Sox power pitcher Chris Sale to discuss his slider, a pitch that hit the majors full-force in August of 2010 when he revealed it to one of the best hitters in the game, Joe Mauer, and whiffed him with three straight in one of his first appearances in the majors.

Sale?s jaw-dropping slider was just wicked all right ? but surprisingly just the third-best on the team according to statistical analysis.

So now it?s time to throw open the curtains to all the major leagues and ferret out the top pitches of the season among pitchers headed to the playoffs, studying their runs saved per 100 pitches, a stat you can ferret out yourself over at FanGraphs, and came up with the top 10 ?out? pitches in the majors. (Note: to qualify for the study, a pitch must comprise at least 5 percent of a pitcher?s arsenal.)

Nastiest pitches in the playoffs Rank Pitcher Team Pitch Runs Saved Percent thrown Avg Velo 1 Cole Hamels Phillies Changeup 4.35 24.1 83.4 2 David Price Rays Changeup 2.93 11.0 83.0 3 Roy Halladay Phillies Curveball 2.73 17.1 77.0 4 Zack Greinke Brewers Slider 2.46 18.8 84.5 5 CC Sabathia Yankees Slider 2.41 21.3 82.4 6 Roy Halladay Phillies Splitter 2.32 15.5 83.2 7 Jeremy Hellickson Rays Changeup 2.29 31.7 80.1 8 James Shields Rays Changeup 2.27 27.2 83.9 9 Kyle Lohse Cardinals Changeup 2.26 19.2 79.6 10 C.J. Wilson Rangers Cutter 2.25 13.2 87.6

While the Philadelphia Phillies are the team with the ballyhooed pitching staff, by sneaking into the postseason the Tampa Bay Rays have lodged three pitches ? by three different pitchers ? among the top 10 in the game. The Phillies also have three in the top 10, though Roy Halladay owns two of them. Ranking 11th is Cliff Lee?s curveball, to give Philly four, by three pitchers, in the top 11. And to prove that you don?t need sheer velocity to equal effectiveness, the top two ? and five of the top 10 ? pitches in the postseason are changeups.

In comparing the playoff pitchers to the overall field, we find out that the Phillies' Cole Hamels once again is No. 1 overall:

Overall regular season Top 10 Rank Pitcher Team Pitch Runs saved Percent thrown Avg Velo 1 Cole Hamels Phillies Changeup 4.35 24.1 83.4 2 Luke Hochevar Royals Slider 4.01 10.7 84.0 3 Felix Hernandez M?s Changeup 3.16 21.5 89.3 4 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers Slider 3.13 25.5 83.8 5 Jered Weaver Angels Changeup 2.99 14.8 78.9 6 David Price Rays Changeup 2.93 11.0 83.0 7 Josh Tomlin Indians Curveball 2.88 14.7 74.1 8 Livan Hernandez Nats Curveball 2.84 15.3 66.4 9 Roy Halladay Phillies Curveball 2.73 17.1 77.0 10 Ricky Romero Jays Changeup 2.61 19.8 85.0

While Tampa nudged past them among playoff teams, the Phillies are the only team represented more than once in the top 10 overall and appear five times among the top five in six pitches (fastball, slider, cutter, curve, changeup, split). Also, check out the average velocity of Livan Hernandez?s curve, the eighth-most effective pitch in the game ? 66.4 mph ? and realize it?s another lesson in velocity not always equaling effectiveness. That?s doubly true when you consider that five of the top 10 most effective pitches in all of baseball are changeups.

No fastballs were used effectively enough to crack the top 10, either among playoff pitchers or overall, but here are the top five fastballs:

1. R.A. Dickey, Mets (1.84 runs saved)
2. Cliff Lee, Phillies (1.74)
3. Doug Fister, M?s-Tigers (1.58)
4. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks (1.58)
5. Justin Verlander, Tigers (1.36)

Not to end on a bum note, but here are the five least effective pitches among playoff pitchers in 2011:

Worst pitches in the playoffs Rank Pitcher Team Pitch Runs saved Percent thrown Avg Velo 1 Bartolo Colon Yankees Slider -2.55 12.4 83.5 2 C.J. Wilson Rangers Changeup -2.42 6.7 83.9 3 Chris Narveson Brewers Slider -2.36 5.9 82.7 4 Jake Westbrook Cards Slider -2.04 8.9 79.0 5 Edwin Jackson CWS-STL Changeup -1.89 8.6 85.7

Wilson has the distinction of cracking both the top 10 best pitches (with his No. 10 cutter) and the top five worst with his flatulent changeup ? good thing he throws that just 6.7 percent of the time. The Cardinals also have the dubious distinction of having two pitchers with top five-worst pitches heading into the postseason.

Of the five listed above, only Colon's slider ranks in the top five worst pitches overall, coming in at No. 5.

Overall regular season worst 5 Rank Pitcher Team Pitch Runs saved Percent thrown Avg Velo 1 Aaron Harang Padres Changeup -2.87 8.5 82.3 2 Luke Hochevar Royals Curveball -2.75 11.6 77.1 3 Brandon Morrow Jays Changeup -2.72 6.4 86.8 4 Luke Hochevar Royals Changeup -2.69 7.4 81.6 5 Bartolo Colon Yankees Slider -2.55 12.4 83.5

I am neither a pitching coach, nor do I play one on TV, but wow, if I?m in Kansas City I?m steering Hochevar away from his imminently-hittable curveball and changeup (comprising 19 percent of his pitches in 2011) and suggesting a few more sliders, given that his slider is the second-best pitch in all of baseball and one he?s throwing less than 11 percent of the time.

Brett Ballantini is CSNChicago.com?s White Sox Insider. Follow him @CSNChi_Beatnik on Twitter for up-to-the-minute Sox information.

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